Daily Trust· 3h ago· 1 min read
Every election cycle in Nigeria throws up the same question in slightly different clothing. Can anyone actually win the presidency without winning the North? Heading into 2027, the answer has not changed much. No. Not because the North votes as a single bloc, because it doesn’t and hasn’t for a long time, but because it remains the largest and most structurally important electoral arena in the country. No southern coalition, however energetic, has ever assembled enough votes on its own to override it.
That distinction matters. It is easy, and lazy, to fall into the shorthand of “Arewa will decide 2027,” as though the region takes instructions from one office in Kaduna or Kano. It doesn’t work that way and never really did. The North is 19 states, dozens of competing power centres, and tens of millions of voters whose loyalties are moving in real time. To understand where 2027 is…
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